A more optimistic scenario

Yes, I hate the media, but some things are okay.

I like the Europe News. And I liked The Economist's analysis. I've been such a big fan of The Economist for so long, I was nervous to read what they would say. I knew it would make me question everything I thought about everything if I discovered that the Economist was all bullshit.

But it wasn't. The analsysis was good. The mainstream American media is crap. And this isn't a surprise to any of us. Because those people who own it are making a lot of money. I will stand by my conspiracy theories of those Mason, secret society, old-boys networks who control the world, by controlling the media, to make us scared, to make us buy expensive weapons and jails (I haven't gone there yet, that deserves its own space, but not now) and beauty products (a la Marilyn Manson in Bowling for Columbine), to ultimately make themselves very rich.

On the 11-hour flight (!!!!) from Frankfurt to Houston, I sat next to a guy who works for the U.S. Deparment of Defense. (Are there still people out there who don't believe in God, and still think there is such a thing as coincidence? The girl on the other side--yeah I was in the middle--is Lebanese and down with that whole community in Houston--another God hook-up.)

After talking to him, I felt way more reassured and more confident about the good intentions of my government. Even though I still think they're ignorant, just like me being "uneducated," "confused," "naive" and "misinformed." I mean, hey as long as we're good-hearted and really trying our best, what more can we ask.

This was a good guy. And there are many other great people participating in this blog commentary. I said this before, but even if we're all misinformed, the intentions are good.

So he said what they're going to do is secure those 20-30 km. south of the Litani River with an internatioanl-peacekeeping force. Israel has to do this because of the missiles being fired. If Israel backs off of this, let's destroy and end Hizbollah for good rhetoric, then there is hope.

Israel really has to back off of that we have to destroy Hizbollah rhetoric. And it will. It has to. Because they know there is no way to end Hizbollah. Bring it into the mainstream political arena (which it already is in Lebanon. They are a party with members of Parliament.) If Israel vows to destroy Hizbollah, my God, this thing will never end, and being what it is, being a grassroots militia, it will only get stronger. But of course, Israel isn't stupid and knows this. Prime Minster Olmert is just saving face, trying to look strong since he doesn't have that military background.

And as for my doomsday scenario about the Americans wanting to occupy. Okay, no. The guy convinced me the U.S. just really can't afford it, which again we all know. And being an election year, showing the miliatary in a positive light as heros who rescue can take some of the attention from Iraq. The US was just capitalizng on the situation, not creating it.

So if Israel will back down once they've secured that border area and they allow for a cease fire, then the rebuilding can start.

This is where the pessimism creeps back in. It will take at the very least--years--for the economy to recover. And as things get worse, and food and supplies become short, sectarian violence will resurge. I know that just from talking to my friend. Non-Shia people in Lebanon are blaming the Hizbollah. The PSP (the Druze party) in Aley is helping the homeless Shia people. And Walid Jumblatt has said that the Druze have to pull together to help their Shia neighbors. Hopefully this will happen.

But as things get worse, of if God forbid, Israel continues. Then Aley (my village) will become a potential victim of Israeli air raids, becasue now that there are over 1000 newcomers, they could be considered a meeting headquarters for Hizbulloh operations. Everywhere in the country could be considered this. The whole country is fair game for Israelf to bomb now.

Daaag. I'm going back to dooms-day scenarios. I can try to be in denial or try to think of a decent way for this thing to end (like those Lebanese who have no choice but to stay), but in my heart-of-hearts, I don't think it's there.